－－仿佛2014年夏季电影当今年2月就开始了
When The LEGO Movie debuted to a staggering $69 million in North America during the weekend of February 7-9, I had to check outside my window to remind myself of what month we were in. I’m not used to reporting numbers that high when there’s still snow on the ground. It felt good. Luckily, the market didn’t slow down after that surprising debut. In fact, the exact opposite happened. The weeks that followed saw healthy debuts from Non-Stop, Son of God, 300: Rise of an Empire, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, Divergent and Noah. Then came Captain America: The Winter Soldier on April 4. As of press time, The Winter Soldier has already passed $300 million worldwide with plenty of room to grow. Disney’s decision to release the sequel in April will remain one of the smartest business moves that any distributor will make this year. The success of The Winter Soldier drives home the point that quality content will result in box office receipts no matter what the calendarreads.
当《乐高大电影》于2月7-9日首映期间在北美创下惊人的6900万美元时，我不得不探望窗外，提醒自己现在究竟是几月份。我可没习惯积雪遍地的时候去报道这么高的票房数字。这感觉真好。幸运的是，在令人惊艳的首映后市场并未减缓。事实上，情势正好相反。接下来几周上映情况良好，从《永不停歇》、到《上帝之子》、《300勇士：帝国崛起》、《天才眼镜狗》、《分歧者》和《诺亚方舟：创世之旅》。然后《美国队长：冬日战士》在4月4日登场。截至发稿日，《美国队长》在全球冲破3亿美元大关，而且升势不减。迪士尼决定在4月上映续集是今年所有发行商将会作出的最英明的商业决策之一。《美国队长：冬日战士》的成功有力地表明，高质量内容带来高票房收入，而无论当下是不是旺季。
A quick glance at the 2015 release schedule indicates that the strong scheduling of early 2014 is no fluke. February 2015 boasts such potential hits as Fifty Shades of Grey and SpongeBob Squarepants 2, while March 2015 brings Cinderella, Insurgent—the sequel to Divergent—and The Penguins of Madagascar, among others. As for April 2015, the release of Fast & Furious 7 should be massive.
快速浏览2015年的放映计划表明，2014年的强劲排期计划并非偶然。2015年2月手握大戏，诸如潜力火爆的《五十度灰》与《海绵宝宝大电影2》，接着2015年3月将推出《灰姑娘》、《反叛者》——分歧者的续集——《马达加斯加的企鹅》等等。至于2015年4月，《速度与激情7》的上映应该是重量级的。
If February, March and April continue to evolve into powerhouse months, how will that affect the Summer season each year? That’s simple: it takes some of the pressure off. A strong release schedule early in the year means that the Summer months don’t need to boost the North American total box office as much as they did before.
如果2月、3月与4月持续发展成旺季，每年会如何影响夏季呢？这很简单：那会让夏季减轻些许压力。年初强劲的排期计划表意味着夏季月份不需再像之前那样硬生生地强力拉升北美总票房。
We’re now heading into a Summer season that’s full of definite hits and a couple of films that look they could surprise. More importantly, it’s full of films that will play well globally. Unfortunately, it’s taking a long time for the “North America is the world” mentality to die when it comes to the way that many people analyze the performance of this industry. The media still loves to pounce on domestic failures while largely ignoring—or at least downplaying—the successes. Case in point: last summer there was no shortage of articles about how big of a bomb The Long Ranger was, but writers seemed to forget that the same studio that put out The Lone Ranger also released two films—Iron Man 3 and Monsters University—that combined for nearly $2 billion in global receipts. How convenient.
我们正在走近夏季。这个夏季充满必然轰动票房的大片，还有两、三部电影似乎能够出人意料。更重要的是，市场充盈着将在全球热映的电影。不幸的是，很多人分析这个行业表现的方式，“北美就是全世界”的心态长久以来都冥顽不化。媒体仍热衷于抨击国内的失败，而在很大程度上忽略了——或至少淡化了——成功。案例：去年夏季连篇累牍地抨击《独行侠》一败涂地。但这些作者似乎忘记了发行《独行侠》的同一家工作室，同样也发行了两部电影——《钢铁侠3》与《怪物大学》——全球票房总收入合计接近20亿美元。真能省事啊。
We are going to see some big things happen this summer in crucial overseas territories such as China, Brazil, South Korea and the U.K., just to name a few. The biggest source of overseas potential has to be Transformers: Age of Extinction’s release in China. 2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon raked in a whopping $172.3 million in China, so anything less than $200 million for Age of Extinction in the world’s 2nd largest theatrical market will be viewed as a disappointment.
让我们看看一些关键的海外地区在这个夏季将会发生的一些大事，比如在中国、巴西、韩国与英国，仅枚举几例。最大的海外潜力票房来源必须是《变形金刚4：绝迹重生》在中国的放映。2011年的《变形金刚3》在中国赚得庞大的1.723亿美元，所以《变形金刚4：绝迹重生》在第二大影院市场如若低于2亿美元成绩，将会令人失望。
Summer 2014 is full of films that could gross anywhere between $500 million-$1 billion globally based on expectations that come from being part of an established property. Let’s go down the list: The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Maleficent, How To Train Your Dragon 2,Transformers: Age of Extinction and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. In addition,there are a bunch of other films that should hit at least $250 million-$300 million worldwide.
2014年夏季充盈许多能赚取1亿到10亿美元全球票房的电影，这是基于这些影片作为功成名就的系列影片的一部分的预期。让我们盘点一下这个名单：《超凡蜘蛛侠2》、《哥斯拉》、《X战警：逆转未来》、《沉睡魔咒》、《驯龙高手2》、《变形金刚4：绝迹重生》与《猩球黎明》。此外，还有一些电影应该至少能拿下2.5亿到3亿美元全球票房。
Any Summer season comes with its share of potential surprise hits, and this summer is no different. It’s important to not overlook the importance of surprises, because any year lives or dies based on how many films play better than expected. There are four films opening between May and August that I feel could fall into this category: Million Dollar Arm, The Fault in Our Stars, Guardians of the Galaxy and Lucy. Also not to be ignored are Tammy, Earth to Echo and Into the Storm.
任何夏季都伴随潜力股惊艳来袭，这个夏季也不例外。重要的是别忽略了惊喜的重要性，因为每年的生死荣辱都在于有多少电影比预期表现更好。我觉得有四部从5月到8月上映的电影可以归入这类范畴：《百万金臂》、《星运里的错》、《银河护卫队》和《伯爵夫人》。同样也别忘了《谭米》、《地球回音》与《不惧风暴》。
Summer 2014 does face the daunting task off matching Summer 2013’s massive output of $4.7 billion from May 1-August 31. It won’t be easy. It’s going to take a combination of the strongest films matching—or preferably exceeding—expectations and a handful of surprises really shining in order to keep up. Yet with a diversification of the release schedule becoming more common,this may end up being one of the last years that we put so much pressure on the Summer season. In a world where all 52 weekends of the year are in play, the Summer season will ideally end up feeling like business as usual instead of a much-needed boost.
要想媲美2013年夏季5月1日至8月31日47亿美元的巨额票房，2014年夏季确实面临艰巨的任务。这并非易事。为了不落于后，市场势必需要最强势的电影持平（或最好能超越）期望，外加几部真正大放光彩的惊喜影片。随着排期时间表的多元分化更加司空见惯，这可能是我们最后一个寄予厚望的夏季。在全年52个星期都发挥作用的世界里，夏季最理想地是能够照常运转，再也不需要强力刺激。